@kravietz Nuclear power is guaranteed destruction as well… Creating nuclear waste lasting for centuries and other than CO2, we don't even have a remote idea on how to get rid of it.
And no, hiding it in the ground is not a great answer as all temporary depots have shown.
I think we have to come up with better solutions there.
@pro @kravietz So, I just spend some time reading about full cycle nuclear power strategy and the first thing that sticks out is: Even for the "little" amount of nuclear waste that France produces, it has no final destination.
And another point I came across, due to the "statistics being an asshole the risk of an incident increases drastically with every new power plant, The incidents of Fukushima and Chernobyl were no exceptions, they were statically "expectable".
I mean if you want to live with the risk, fine, go ahead. But please somewhere not even remotely close to me? like further away than Chernobyl, because we still had their nuclear cloud over here and are still recommended to not collect mushrooms in the forest, due to this nonsense.
The number of people that are at least subject of a nuclear incident is by a magnitude of hundred thousands when not millions higher than the number of even hundreds of solar or wind industry incidents.
And we can safely expect another incident within the next 15-20 years.
No, we cannot. Because accidents happened to old reactors built and operated in risky locations, and the industry has learned from it.
Nothing that happened in Chernobyl and Fukushima can ever happen in any reactor operated in France, UK or Germany, because they were built specifically to be safe.
Note that even Russia, with its long tradition of negligence, had no nuclear power safety accidents since Chernobyl.
An example for this is the 1999 incident: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blayais_Nuclear_Power_Plant#1999_flooding
The current ASM report from 2018 talks a lot about improvements that were done after Fukushima, which shows that there is still room for improvement.
By the way, the point of the statistic is not that an incident will happen the same way as in Fukushima, but with a similar impact.
@kravietz @pro True, those can happen, and they do happen, but considering the environmental impact and the regulations that those project have regarding cleanness of water in Europe mean even the worst incident won't cause a wasteland. Like with a Tsunami people will die, people will flee but as soon as it's over they will come back and start living there. That not so much the case directly around Chernobyl or Fukushima even after decontamination.
It's not true - a flood in the first place fills up sewers, water treatment plants, farms etc so the sediment after a flood is essentially a mix of human and animal crap, animal corpses, dead fish etc. You can't just "come back and start living", houses need to be cleaned, sterilized, repainted and in some cases demolished and rebuilt. Cars can be only scrapped as they smell shit and fish.
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_von_Stauanlagenunf%C3%A4llen (sorry for the german here again, but the english version doesn't list a lot of european incidents)
Looking those incidents, non of these ended with "and the area became impossible to settle again". Basically all were solved in a no time. Sometimes villages have moved, but that's pretty much it.
The problem with nuclear power are not direct death numbers, but the long term environmental impact. From deformities, to reduced life expectations to no longer usable land areas. I'm not sure which study you are quoting, but I don't expect them to calculate those impacts in there.
This is all covered by medical research after nuclear accidents. In case of Fukushima there was 1 fatality, in case of Chernobyl - 200 (over 20 years). All that included cancer, early death, birth defects etc.
In many cases suspicious diseases are blamed on nuclear without conclusive evidence, as it was with a spike of leukemia near Sellafield nuclear processing plant in UK back in 80's. Media were quick to jump to conclusion that the plant is KILLING OUR CHILDREN!!! etc
There was no evidence for that - and there were similar spikes of leukemia in other parts of UK, very far from any nuclear facilities. But when people are biased and they *want* to blame something/someone, they don't care about evidence.
Only in 2000's new research found cause to be regular bacterial infections. These places like Sellafield were always quite isolated and people living there had low immunity against more exotic pathogens.
@kravietz @pro The WHO talks about slightly different number around a few thousand that are impacted in form of cancer but with no clear diagnose whenever this is caused directly due to radiation of due to bad lifestyle. (That's the ugly thing about radiation)
And a lot of cancer cases were solvable by surgery but people have to take meds for their entire life. The mortality itself is not really the full picture of the problem with nuclear power, as I mentioned before.
When it comes to coal, we also have the whole mining process, which has a huge and negative impact on the environment. But even there I consider the impact of those things lower than the impact of a nuclear power plant incident in Germany. Be it due to natural disaster or human error.
What we need to do is getting this Bureaucracy sorted out.
@kravietz @pro Anyway, it was definitely an interesting discussion we had. I really enjoyed it. Even when it just made me even less certain about the world wide usage of nuclear power. The MIT even suggests that there are 4 major incidents in the timespan from 2004 to 2053 (and at least 1 with Fukushima was there).
It's a weird piece of technology. As someone who hates gambling, not really my world. Still hope we can all figure this energy/environment problem out together quite soon :)
@kravietz @pro at least this study doesn't seem to support the indicated statement: https://festkoerper-kernphysik.de/Weissbach_EROI_preprint.pdf
And similar studies I got through a quick scan using google scholar, don't suggest anything else either. There is a positive EOREI in wind energy, it's just not as big as other renewable energy sources and way below fossil fuels. But that's no surprise.
Looking at real world examples: Rampion off-shore wind farm in UK has 116 towers that occupy 70 km2 (!) and has nominal output of 700MW. In case of off-shore wind, that can be utilised up to 40% due to intermittency.
Nearby Dungeness nuclear power plant has just one block of 600MW that can be utilised up to 95% and occupies maybe 1 km2.
This, in my opinion, is a huge difference...
@kravietz @pro well, the Exclusion Zone around Chernobyl is 2,600 km2. So given that an accident happens, which due to statistics as already mentioned we have to expect, that's quite some space for wind power.
I mean, I have an IT background and look a lot into backups. And looking at that tells me: By default calculate the worst case scenario. And as mentioned, it's not unrealistic that an incidents appears.
You're comparing apples and oranges.
Germany is *already* hitting its limits of land available for wind farms, and to move further with renewables it would need to occupy further thousands of km2.
And if you are indeed considering "the worst scenario" indeed, then you need to also look into possibility of mass gas explosion at power-to-gas and hydrogen processing installations that can destroy whole cities, hydro dam collapses and house fires caused by roof solars.
@kravietz @pro First of all: We have quite some space left, especially in Bavaria. Which is at the same time the biggest energy consuming state in Germany. The Bavarian government actively blocks wind power in order to "keep the landscape view intact", that's not running out of space, that's denial. Fun fact there: They recently changed the minimum distance from housing for wind power form 1km to 2km. Against the recommendations of the scientific service and external experts.
And since I'm with Kant that I should only do stuff where I can accept that it would become a universal law, I don't want to anyone else to have to live close to one. That again means, there would be no one to operate it, which is a quite bad situation. So I ask you: Is that irrational?
But you ignore climate change which will be more destructive than any nuclear incident, ignore coal waste, gas leaks, rare earth mining, physical constraints of renewables etc - but to nuclear you apply a battery of unjustified fears - so yes, this *is* irrational :)
@kravietz @pro And yes, expect of the "mass gas explosions", I was already considering them. But again, the actual case numbers are quite limited and number of killed and permanently insured people is quite low (in Europe) or in countries with comparable safety regulations in those areas.
And again, especially for roof solar power, those cases a lot better to control than big incident caused by nuclear power plants. As well as being a lot easier to send help in.
@kravietz @pro The organisation for international safety regulations is the IAEA therefore, there is a comparable baseline for all nuclear power plants world wide (some countries in the west asia excluded). And during the stress test in the EU, there was also pointed out, that there was room for improvement to compensate the short comings that lead to the Fukushima disaster. (Luckily no geological ones, but still), we can definitely compare the Japanese regulations with the EU ones from 2011.
»Number of people killed and permanently injured as result of nuclear power in Europe and "in countries with comparable safety regulations" is zero.«
So the USA, Russia and Japan don't have comparable safety regulation, I assume. Or your "zero" is different from the common one.
The incidences you paint on the wall are not occurring in a notable size - given 200 years of experience in how to handle gas, and lots if measures. When gas there been the last mass gas explosion, how many gave been injured, how many had to leave home forever and how many years has this area then been contaminated?
But the point is you can't put *more* wind turbines there. You built 400MW nominal power and occupied 70 km². For 4GW you need 700 km² etc, for 40GW - 7000 km² etc. And you will only get 30-40% of that on average.
This is why DESERTEC planned to build solar panels in Sahara which was good idea in theory... but it failed.
Again, nothing comes for free. Wind and solar manufacturing requires rare earth metals, which are... mined.
And as they are mined, they release waste that is... radioactive due to natural radium and thorium content.
And this *too* has environmental impact https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_Pass_rare_earth_mine#Environmental_impact
But again, nobody wants to hear about it because "solar and wind are so clean".
Now, as it comes to coal - nobody wants it alone. But everyone wants stable power supply...
So when the villages became visited by many people from outside - because of the plants construction - they started to get these infections. They were not serious, but in small percentage of children they triggered leukemia.
Obviously, it has nothing to do with radiation and it happened in other places with new tourist centers etc. But once again, if you want to blame something, you don't care about evidence.
And this is precisely why people prefer coal plants that kill them slowly over nuclear plants that don't kill anybody, but are "scary".
By the way, coal ash is also radioactive and contaminates ground. All coal plants in Germany alone produce around 8 million m3 of coal waste every month, so over 100 millions of tons per years. And the ash is just stored on heaps, contaminating land and water.
All nuclear plants in all EU produced 6 million m3 of waste ever. But who cares?
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